Ilmari Käihkö: The US aid package for Ukraine is important, but it could be the last

Bust of Ilmari Käihkö in coat, shirt and tie, photographed outdoors in sunshine.

The US aid package for Ukraine could be the last, and that means Europe’s responsibility increases as the war drags on. This assessment comes from researcher Ilmari Käihkö.

The US House of Representatives voted on Saturday evening Finnish time for an aid package worth around $60 billion for Ukraine.

Ilmari Käihkö, a military scientist with a doctorate, tells Yle that the package is very important for Ukraine and the entire future of the country.

The support is also exceptional for the size. The United States has provided around $42 billion in support to Ukraine so far during the war.

– In euros, the support package is about 55 billion. Finland’s total defense budget is around six billion euros. So that’s a huge amount of money that is now going to buy weapons, ammunition and training in Ukraine.

Käihkö says the package will quickly strengthen Ukraine’s position in the war.

– Since the end of last year, Ukraine has been in a weaker position compared to Russia. The balance of strength ratios becomes more even with this package. But in the long term, Ukraine still has many problems.

Europe is taking on a larger role

According to Käihkö, it is likely that Ukraine will not be able to decide the war with the help of the US support package.

– I would prepare for the fact that this war will also be long-lasting. This is a very important thing, but it does not make the war a victory for Ukraine. That would be a rather optimistic interpretation.

Käihkö stressed that the aid package may be the last that Ukraine ever receives from the US, especially if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

According to Käihkö, Europe will play a larger role in supporting Ukraine. The US aid package also gives European countries more time to ramp up their ammunition production.

– It is a really open question whether Europe will be able to produce as much material as Russia in the coming years. Russia has simply invested more in its production than Europe.

– I would prepare for the war to drag on, US support to end and responsibility to shift more and more to Europe, says Käihkö.

The article is a translation of the interview by Yle Uutiset Ilmari Käihkö: Uustans Tukipaketti on important, muttei kännä sotaa utää Ukrainian Voitoksi by Hilma Toivonen.

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