“If you have a grandfather, send him to Europe.” For a long time, this was a mocking saying about Brussels’ politics. But it has long since ceased to apply: the times when EU posts were well-paid supply posts for shabby politicians are over. Everyone now knows that being nominated as EU Commissioner or working in the European Parliament not only brings with it prestige and a lot of travel, but also means a lot of power and influence.
For this reason, the central positions – referred to as “EU Top Jobs” in Brussels jargon – are now hard-fought. And now, with the European elections less than a year away, things are really happening in the unofficial EU capital.
Of course, most of the speculation revolves around the occupation of the executive floor: is Ursula von der Leyen applying for a second term as EU Commission President? Nobody in Brussels doubts that she would like to remain at the head of the Commission. But would she also run as the top candidate for the European People’s Party (EPP)? She really doesn’t feel like it, as they say about her.
Parliamentarians want campaign tour
However, many parliamentarians want the candidates to go on campaign tours as top candidates. In their eyes, this is a step towards democratic legitimacy of the EU. The fact that von der Leyen came into office in 2019 without any official candidacy still causes great dissatisfaction in parliament.
Von der Leyen should be sure of the support of the European Council – the representation of the EU states. However, it would also have to be confirmed by Parliament.
Manfred Weber, who actually still has an open account with von der Leyen, should see to that. The reason: The head of the EPP, the largest group in Parliament, wanted to become head of the commission himself after the 2019 election and was therefore entered the race as the top candidate for the Conservatives.
Although the Conservatives got the most votes, Weber did not move into a new office in the Berlaymont building on the Schuman. Neither in Parliament nor in the Council did he have a majority behind him. Instead, after a long back and forth, the council surprisingly agreed on Ursula von der Leyen as the new commissioner.
Weber was out. His month-long election campaign had been completely in vain. From circles of his party colleagues it was heard again and again how deeply this had hit him.
This also explains why the CSU man recently brought the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, back into the conversation as the new head of the European Commission – an affront to von der Leyen. However, the woman from Malta is not given any chances. Her country is simply too insignificant in EU politics to allow her to lead the Brussels executive.
The NATO headquarters is about 6 kilometers as the crow flies from von der Leyen’s workplace. And thus the reason why everything could turn out completely differently. Ursula von der Leyen was the first woman to head the German Defense Ministry, the first woman to head the European Commission – and she would also like to be the first woman to head the transatlantic defense alliance.
Especially at a time when the defense alliance is as important as it has been since the Cold War, due to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Next year, the current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will vacate his post – at least that’s the plan. There is a certain perplexity in the alliance as to who could follow him, so that the Norwegian’s contract has been extended again and again in recent years. Von der Leyen has been discussed several times as his successor, and now again.
However, von der Leyen’s chances are very poor. Americans are said to have been vehemently opposed to them in recent years – and continue to hold that position. Poland shouldn’t be a friend of the Leyens either. In addition, the Eastern Europeans themselves sense their great opportunity to lead the alliance.
After men from Western, Southern and Northern Europe have always headed NATO in the past, it is time, for political reasons, to let an Eastern European have a chance. Especially since it would send a strong signal to Moscow to entrust the leadership of the alliance to a politician from the countries on Russia’s doorstep.
Back to the Berlaymont building and the EU Commission. There, two familiar faces have already said goodbye to von der Leyen’s cabinet with new plans for the future.
Shortly before the summer break, von der Leyens gave up as first vice president Frans Timmermans announced that he was campaigning in the Netherlands to become head of government there. The Social Democrats put him up with the Greens as their joint top candidate.
For von der Leyen, this is both good and bad news. On the one hand, she is rid of her biggest opponent: Frans Timmermans would also have liked to become EU Commission President in 2019, even got a call from EU government circles that he would be – and then von der Leyen made the decision.
Timmermans was offered the post of first vice president as a consolation and was also chosen to lead the Green Deal – the Commission’s plan to decarbonize Europe’s economy by 2050. A project of the century, with which von der Leyen wants to go down in the history books.
Although this looks like a good deal and harmonious cooperation from the outside, the two have been engaged in bitter power struggles within the Commission and absolutely hate each other. Timmermans is considered a very vain person. The fact that he was not promoted to head of the Commission deeply hurt him, they say about him in Brussels.
Timmermans is not easy to replace
On the other hand, Timmermans did a good job with the Green Deal: he did not shy away from unpleasant political steps and nipped resistance in the bud. Timmermans speaks six languages – and in Brussels, the more languages you speak, the better you can express your interests.
So far it is unclear who could inherit Timmermans for the remainder of the legislature and beyond. It’s definitely not going to be an easy job. The resistance to the Green Deal is enormous: not only on the part of the lobbyists, but also EU member states and EU parliamentarians – especially Weber’s EPP group – try again and again to torpedo the major climate project.
Von der Leyen’s second vice-president, Margrethe Vestager, was in discussion at the time, as was Timmermans, for the management of the commission. As EU competition commissioner, she had repeatedly taken on big tech corporations and made a name for herself as a result. Now the Dane will probably become President of the European Investment Bank (EIB) and manage assets there amounting to hundreds of billions of euros.
Several EU commissioners are already wrangling to find their successor. The names of the Austrian Johannes Hahn, Vladis Dombrovski from Latvia and the French Thierry Breton are mentioned.
Another absolute top job is the post of EU foreign policy representative, which is currently held by the rather unpopular Spaniard Josep Borrell. There are voices that former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin would be a good choice.
Marin is extremely popular in Brussels – and the 37-year-old has basically already given her application speech. In response to a journalist’s question on how to end the war in Ukraine, she said: “The solution to the conflict is for Russia to disappear from Ukraine. This is the only way.”
Still, the idea of a Marin as the EU’s chief diplomat is wishful thinking: Finland’s centre-right government is unlikely to send a social democrat to Brussels. They will prefer to fall back on a politician from their own parties.
