Just a few days ago, Joe Biden was confident that there could be a ceasefire in Gaza by early next week. But after the food distribution drama that left dozens dead, the US president is cautious about whether a temporary ceasefire will come quickly.
Thousands of people ran toward trucks carrying relief supplies; There was panic and crowding, and shots were also said to have been fired. Now pressure could mount again on Israel to agree to a ceasefire, if possible before the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan on March 10. Three experts assess the chances of this happening. You can find all episodes of our “3 in 1” series here.
A ceasefire could counter the escalation, but the danger of war has not been avoided
There is much to suggest another agreement between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization: a Ramadan ceasefire could counter regional escalation – and in light of the genocidal massacre that Hamas committed against Israeli civilians on October 7, everyone can imagine how Hamas will participate in the Jewish struggle. men, women and children in their power. The danger of a war in the Middle East has not been avoided: as long as Israel does not intervene in Rafah, Hamas will not be defeated militarily.
Despite its brutal violence (or perhaps because of it?), Hamas also receives enthusiastic support from Palestinians and the progressive left: if it can successfully use this method to free Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons, In the worst case it will create more incentives. for next October 7. In any case, Iran and its militias are watching closely and are happy with the “criticism of Israel” in the Western world.
A complete ceasefire is unlikely, but a reduction in fighting is possible.
A complete ceasefire is unlikely to be reached; a reduction in fighting is more realistic. Hamas is fighting to continue existing as a power factor in Gaza and for the survival of its leadership. Netanyahu’s government has three, sometimes contradictory, goals: destroy Hamas’ infrastructure in Gaza, free the hostages and ensure the government’s continued existence. It will be difficult to reconcile these positions so that a general pause is possible.
Proof of this is the rejection of negotiation proposals by the Israeli government about two weeks ago and by Hamas a few days ago. Therefore, it can be assumed that fighting will continue, albeit at a reduced level, in the coming weeks and also during Ramadan. However, a partial agreement, that is, an exchange of some of the remaining hostages in exchange for a halt to fighting in part of Gaza, appears to be an achievable goal in the current situation.
It depends on the calculations of the warring parties and on Qatar putting pressure on Hamas.
Will there be a ceasefire? The question is another: What does this happen depend on? The answer is clear: the calculations of the parties and the political will of US President Biden and Qatar as mediator. Netanyahu’s radical associates seek the conflict to fuel his ethnic cleansing project. According to Finance Minister Smotrich, the release of the hostages is only of secondary importance.
Will Israel’s Prime Minister stop them? And will Biden lead by example and exert influence? Otherwise, he risks losing his party’s progressive base. Hamas insists on a permanent and not temporary ceasefire.
It is up to Qatar to put pressure on the Doha-based Hamas politburo. A ceasefire would not only alleviate dire humanitarian needs, but would also ease the situation in Jerusalem, where clashes often occur during Ramadan.
